In Douglas North, ed. Transforming Post-Communist Political Economies. National Resource Council/ National Academy of Sciences.1998, 133-156. RESTRUCTURING PRODUCTION WITHOUT MARKET INFRASTRUCTURE Judith Thornton Department of Economics University of Washington The aim of economic reform is to provide a framework of laws and institutions that will further freedom and prosperity. In pursuit of this aim, the reforming economies have attempted to privatize firms, liberalize markets, deregulate access to markets, and redirect the role of the government to the provision of economic and social infrastructure and the securing of individual rights. Several of the East European and Baltic countries are succeeding in building a healthy private sector and reorienting economic activity to the world market. However, although Russia and many of the republics of the former Soviet Union have pursued privatization with no less vigor, still a successful restructuring of production continues to elude them. In 1996, the level of real gross domestic product in the Commonwealth of Independent States was only 52 percent of 1989, according to official data.1 Creation of Markets What does economic reform mean? There are many difficult steps in this process. Creation of markets is a crucial first step. Central planning implied not only reliance on administrative mechanisms to direct resources to centrally-determined tasks but also use of sanctions to restrict diversion of resources to unplanned ends, however valuable in the informal economy these uses appeared to be. The widespread emergence of black or gray markets for goods and the importance of 1 European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Transition Report 1996, 112. 1 barter both signaled the costs these systems faced from the absence of legal alternatives to planned allocations and assignments. After economic reform, as the structure of domestic production adjusts to consumer preferences and world market opportunities, labor and capital markets must play an essential role in directing resources to higher value activities. Emergence of Private Producers Reform implies the emergence of non-state producers which face hard budget constraints and competition. Private producers will bear risks, reap the benefits and costs of their activities, and, thus, have incentives to move resources from lower-value to higher-value uses. In the reform economies, a population of competitive producers can emerge from the privatization and restructuring of existing state producers, from new domestic entrants to the market, and from an inflow of foreign capital and management. An opening of domestic markets to international trade will bring the discipline of market competition as well. Creation of a non-state sector implies a termination of the state's monopoly on ownership of productive resources and the emergence of private owners. Private ownership can bring together the control and cash flow rights to resources, improving incentives, while creation of capital markets can lower the costs of seeking investment finance. But establishment of property rights requires legal, financial, and administrative infrastructure to define and enforce ownership rights. It implies a significant redefinition of the role of the state, which is no longer the owner and allocator of resources and capital, but is rather the means for providing social infrastructure and public goods. Redefining the Role of the State Thus, most importantly, reform implies the creation of a separate tax-based state with the capacity to supply social infrastructure and public goods. A separation of government revenue from ownership of capital provides greater transparency in both the capital market and in the public sector. Government taxes and subsidies become explicit in the government budget rather than implicit in government prices and 2 allocations. If the central function of the administrative state was ownership and control, then the central functions of the market-oriented state are provision of a) institutional infrastructure, b) social insurance, and c) public goods. So the role of the state is very different in the planned and market economies. In the pre-reform era, state controls supplanted much of the institutional infrastructure of a market economy, overriding contract law with administrative practice. Thus, elimination of state control involves rebuilding rule of law and the capacity to enforce a framework of rules of the game. It involves rebuilding a capacity to manage the macroeconomy by means of monetary and financial policies, to establish independent financial institutions, and to provide public goods and a social safety net. Restructuring of government may involve building local governments with the capacity to provide local public goods and agencies at all levels that provide more public services and less regulation. Changing the Structure of Production and Attracting Investment Initial reform policies--liberalization, stabilization, and privatization--have set the East European transition economies well on the road to integration with Europe. But successful implementation of each of these policies assumes the existence of supporting institutions and minimum levels of governmental administrative capacity. Where such infrastructure is lacking--notably in the republics of the former Soviet Union--the desired policy results have been harder to achieve. The second stage of economic reform involves a still more difficult process, the reallocation of labor and capital from subsidized state sectors to expanding export and consumer-oriented sectors. Eastern Europe has had considerable success in mobilizing domestic saving and in attracting foreign investment, while Russia and the CIS continue to suffer capital flight. The collapse of the former Soviet Union left these countries with a highly uneconomic dispersion of production facilities. Everybody was in the wrong place and doing the wrong thing. In consequence, the social dislocation resulting from redirection of production adds to already-high levels of economic risk and inhibits further the modest inflow of investment. Given the failure of these economies to attract domestic and foreign investment, a top priority of 3 future policy must be the creation of a more attractive environment for private investment. Initial Conditions and State Dependence The task of restructuring production is hampered by initial conditions. The Soviet Union shared with Eastern Europe a bureaucratic power structure controlled by a Communist party and oriented toward the maintenance of political power. Why then, have Soviet political institutions served as a more serious impediment to restructuring than similar institutions in Eastern Europe? One difference between the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe is the immense size of the Soviet economy and high degree of centralization of its government system. The sheer size of the Soviet government meant that the resources at stake in government decisions were enormous, creating significant incentives for individuals in the decision-making hierarchy to attempt to influence decisions by lobbying and by distorting the information on which decisions would be based. Local interests took advantage of long bureaucratic channels between local and central levels and their control of information to supply biased reports. Good decision-making requires accurate information about the options available and about the likely consequences of each choice-- information that is best obtained directly from people on the spot who can seek out alternatives, gather evidence, and forecast consequences. But opening a decision process to participation by individuals with a stake in it increases the resources devoted to lobbying, and these lobbying costs are greatest when a decision redistributes a large amount of wealth. So lobbying costs must be balanced against the increased information that lobbying provides.2 One way to reduce rent-seeking is to limit the distributional implications of decisions, a step which may also sharply reduce the bureaucracy's capacity to adjust to changed circumstances. Another is to limit communication by denying individuals in the hierarchy access to 2 On these points, see Paul Milgrom, "Employment Contracts, Influence Activities and Efficient Organization Design," Journal of Political Economy, Vo. 96 (1988), 42-60 and Paul Milgrom and John Roberts, "Bargaining and Influence Costs and the Organization of Economic Activity," Perspectives on Positive Political Economy, J. Alt and K. Shepsle, eds. (Cambridge, Ma: Cambridge University Press, 1990), 57-89. 4 the information they would need to politic effectively, a step which reduces the accountability of top level decision makers and may reduce the information on which central decision makers base their own judgments. Decentralization limits influence activities by eliminating the central authority altogether, but decentralization when there are no markets leaves decentralized actors without effective means of coordination. The informal economy is a product of this need for horizontal links. Consider, then, the structure of inherited government institutions described by Richard Ericson in the Journal of Economic Perspectives:3 1) A hierarchical structure of authority in which all choices must be made, and all conflicts resolved, in principle, at a level superior to all sides of the issue, with sole vertical accountability for actions and outcomes; 2) Rigid, highly centralized planning of production and distribution; 3) A commitment to maximal resource utilization, implying tautness and pressure in planning; 4) Formal rationing--that is, administrative allocation in physical or quasi-physical terms of producers' goods and services; 5) Exhaustive price control, yielding multiple and contradictory systems of centrally fixed, inflexible prices; capability (either financial or physical) in the system, and in particular the lack of a true money; relationships and the inability of any subordinate to alter any of these relationships legally; norms, indices, and parameters of plan assignments, 6) The lack of any liquidity or flexible response 7) The lack of legal alternatives to assigned economic 8) Absolute and arbitrary control by superiors of the performance evaluation, and rewards; 9) Incentives that are geared to meeting the plans and desires of evaluating superiors, and not to the economic consequences of decisions taken at levels below the very top. From features 7) and 8) comes the perception, described in James Leitzel, "Evasion in Transitional Russia; An Extended Outline" (this volume), that it was impossible to operate legally in the Soviet economy. 3 Richard Ericson, "The Classical Soviet-Type Economy: Nature of the System and Implications for Reform," Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 5, No. 4 (Fall 1991) 11-27. 5 The truth of this view, even today, tells us that CIS governments have transformed themselves far less and in less desirable directions than have their privatized firms. In Central Asia, much of the familiar governmental authority over production remains, the elaborate patronage systems transmuted into their monetary equivalents. In Russia, where republican agencies held almost no authority in the Soviet era (since producers dealt directly with their Soviet-level ministries,) the Russian government is simultaneously bloated and disintegrating. Many Federation agencies are effectively privatized by corruption resulting from the fierce competition for ownership and control of Russia's vast resource wealth. Restructuring the Socialist Firm If the centralized Soviet Ministry was a feudal barony, then the enterprise subordinate to it was a principality. Stephen Kotkin's depiction of the Magnitogorsk Works in Steeltown, USSR is instructive:4 Forty-three kilometers around, the Magnitogorsk Works, a dense mass of smokestacks, pipes, cranes, and railroad track, consists of 130 shops, many of which are as large as whole factories. "Steel plant" would be an inadequate description of the complex formed by an orecrushing and ore-enriching plant, a coke and chemical byproducts plant, 10 gigantic blast furnaces, 34 open-hearth ovens, and dozens of rolling and finishing mills. The Magnitogorsk Works produces more steel each year than Canada or Czechoslovakia and almost as much as Great Britain. The metallurgical complex dominates city life in every way. The works owns apartment buildings in the city housing two hundred thousand people, eighty-five children's institutions, several hospitals, a number of nearby resort complexes, and an entire agricultural system of state farms and greenhouses in the surrounding countryside. It manages its own food service, which serves hundreds of thousands of meals a day. It owns and operates the city's mass transit system, ferrying its employees and those of every other enterprise to and from work. 4 Stephen Kotkin. Steeltown, USSR; Soviet Society in the Gorbachev Era. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1991, 1. 6 Ivan Romazan, the director of the Magnitogorsk Works, oversaw not only production but also the political administration of almost all social life in the city. Through his influence in the Moscow Ministry, he was responsible for assuring delivery of the centrally-allocated resources to everyone from the mayor to the plant managers. Through his role in the Communist Party nomenklatura, he selected these managers in a system where one's position in the bureaucracy constituted one's primary wealth. A restructuring of the Magnitogorsk Works involves more than privatizing a firm that employs 60,000 workers. It means creating an institutional framework for civil society in a city of 440,000 people. Worse still, it may mean creating the labor and housing markets to allow a considerable part of that population to leave "the largest assemblage of obsolete equipment in the country" for a city with better prospects. The Role of Institutions What are the institutions whose absence impedes adjustment? First and foremost, they are property rights and markets. But what impedes the exercise of property rights and contracting in markets? The hurdles are lack of legal institutions, financial institutions, public goods such as law and order and physical infrastructure, and government administrative capacity. Institutions are sets of formal and informal rules that constrain behavior in society. According to Douglass C. North, writing in Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance, "Institutions reduce uncertainty by providing a structure to everyday life."5 Institutions provide a framework within which individuals seek to coordinate their separate activities. They provide information and incentives and define terms of access to membership. The institutional framework of society includes both the formal and informal "rules of the game" as well as the resulting organizations that people create and within which they interact to reach their individual and collective goals. Formal rules, such as laws and contracts, define the rules of the game and give people the rights and 5 Douglass C. North. Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance. Cambridge University Press, 1991, p. 3. 7 mechanisms to enforce the rules. Informal rules of the game depict the expectations that individuals hold as to the uncertain consequences of actions and events. Informal rules take into account the real-world costs of negotiating agreements, monitoring compliance, and enforcing sanctions. The bureaucratic Soviet system eliminated markets and created poorly defined property rights. In contemporary Russia, the property rights individuals enjoy still are poorly defined (in the case of land) or costly to enforce. If, as Maxim Boycko, Andrei Shleifer, and Robert Vishny argue in Privatizing Russia, political control of economic activity in the Soviet era created an inefficient division of control rights and cash flow rights to property, then weak legal and administrative infrastructure in contemporary Russia still leaves citizens with scant means to resolve agency problems in governance of firms and facing expropriation of income by the competing authorities of the tax inspectorate and (for small business) the mafiya.6 Businesses in Russia do seek strategies to operate in the absence of institutional infrastructure. They build "reputation capital" to operate in a system founded on relationships. They use the relationship system to gain access to resources and wealth that remain under political control and keep out potential competitors by political regulation. They attempt to design self-enforcing arrangements to support agreements and investment in the absence of third-party enforcement. They attempt to create long-run incentives to forego short-run opportunism. Where appropriate, they use reliable third parties to vouch for the quality of their prospective performance. They create private enforcement institutions.7 The economic development of Asia shows that some countries, such as China, have achieved rising standards of living in the absence of formal legal infrastructure by relying on relationship systems. But Russia does not appear have this option. Russia is unlikely to attract the levels of domestic and foreign investment it needs for structural 6 Maxim Boycko, Andrei Shleifer, and Robert Vishny. Privatizing Russia, Cambridge, Ma.: MIT Press, 1995, 19-46. 7 Judith Thornton and Nadezhda Mikheeva, " The Strategies of Foreign and Foreign- Assisted Firms in the Russian Far East; Alternatives to Missing Infrastructure," Comparative Economic Studies (forthcoming). 8 change unless it does considerably more to build the institutional infrastructure of a market system. The Role of Property Rights Property rights are a key institution. As is true of all institutions, it is de facto and not de jure property rights that will determine people's incentives to act and will shape the organizations that they establish. Property rights are rules of the game that may be defined by formal laws or administrative practices or may be codified in informal custom. These rules of the game define the forms that competition for resources may take in society. Consider two individuals, A (with an endowment of wine) and B (with an endowment of cheese). What institutional arrangements would allow both individuals to consume both commodities? Clearly, voluntary exchange would facilitate transactions theat are both mutual and voluntary, but the form that transfers from one party to another will take depends, in part, on whether each individual respects the other's property rights. If property rights were not protected, A could steal B's cheese, transferring ownership from one to the other without compensation. In a world where B had to incur high costs to protect herself from theft, the value of her property would be much reduced. Alternatively, A could threaten B with violence. In this case, A has transferred property rights to B's person from B to himself, but he allows B to purchase back the rights to her person with an appropriate amount of cheese. If the private protection of property is costly, then individual incentives to produce and maintain resources will be reduced. Further, the resources available for productive use will be reduced by the diversion of resouces to attempts to capture wealth or to prevent such capture. When property rights to valuable income streams are not defined and enforced, then individuals have an incentive to spend real resources to 9 capture such rights. Such a competition will tend to dissipate (or, with uncertainty, more than dissipate) the value of ownership after the fact.8 Private ownership means that an owner can control the use of an asset and exclude others from using it, that one has the right to enjoy benefit or income and the right to transfer. Ownership also implies the responsibility to bear the costs of one's actions. Gaining these rights of ownership, individuals have incentives to create and maintain productive assets. Private ownership concentrates the benefits and costs of actions more directly on the person responsible for them and it allows individuals to specialize in management of assets and in bearing the risks associated with uncertain outcomes. A decision-maker who receives the benefits and bears the cost of decisions will face incentives to increase the value of endowment or will bear the costs of failure to do so. Private owners who receive the gains from moving resources to higher value uses will have incentives to create institutional arrangements supporting such transactions. Thus, resource owners have incentives to create market institutions. Moreover, differences in initial endowments and tastes for risk and incentives to enjoy specialization and economies of scale will lead individuals to establish institutional arrangements that allow them to partition property rights in a variety of different ways. If the institutional framework allows, an owner may choose to farm her land herself or to hire a tenant to till the fields under her direction in exchange for a fixed wage. She may lease her fields to the tenant in exchange for a fixed payment, leaving him free to select crops and choose his own level of effort or she may share the control rights and the returns in a multiplicity of different contractual arrangements. Just as competitive markets force out inefficient producers, similarly, institutions that allow groups of individuals to enter into a wide variety of contractual arrangements will allow them to select among contractual forms, resulting in the selection of forms that prove to 8 For systems with private protection and private capture, see Hirshleifer, Jack, "Anarchy and its Breakdown," Journal of Political Economy, Vol 103, No. 1 (February 1995), 26-52; Grossman, Herschel and Minseong Kim, "Swords or Plowshares? A Theory of the Security of Claims to Property," Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 103, No. 6 (December 1995), 1275-1288. 10 reduce the sum of production and transactions costs within the existing institutional framework. Property rights not only determine the individual's rights to control and benefit from use of physical assets, they also define the individual's ability to exercise ownership right's in one's own skills and abilities. That is, liberty implies the right to own and direct oneself and the fruits of one's effort. The importance of property rights to our exercise of freedom is demonstrated in the case of China. In pre-reform China, political authorities held the right to direct individuals to a place of work and to define the conditions of their employment. These control rights over labor were enforced by a rationing system that gave individuals access to rations of basic commodities at their place of employment. But, as soon as agricultural reforms created a free market in food, it became much easier for workers to move from place to place in search of bertter work opportunities, giving them greater de facto property rights over their own human capital. Moreover, even with little formal change in legal rules of the game, the responsibility system gave Chinese households significantly greater property rights in agriculture, reflected in increased household control over uses of land and income from crops. Similarly, changed contractual rights in industry, which gave managers and workers in Chinese town and village enterprises increased control over production and rights of residual claimancy, improved incentives within town and village enterprises and increased competition between them. Thus, the economist's understanding of property rights differs from the legal definition in that it focuses not on legal ownership but on the de facto partitioning of rights, which reflects costs of information and enforcement as well as legal rules. The Exercise of Ownership to State-Owned Property In Privatizing Russia, Maxim Boycko, Andrei Shleifer, and Robert Visny attribute the failings of the socialist production system to poorly defined property rights inherent in state ownership of wealth. Control rights to assets were vested in a political elite that exercised control through an administrative bureaucracy. Cash flow rights were assigned 11 to the citizens, since they would bear the benefits and costs of decisions in the level of their standard of living. Officially, returns to capital and resources were supposed to be centralized in the Treasury in the form of profits, taxes, and charges for resources, but, in practice, administrators who enjoyed control rights could assign subsidies and impose costs throughout the system in the policies that they pursued. Although the institutions of the command system denied individuals legal ownership rights to most physical assets (tenancy rights to housing were allowed,) they afforded the elite control rights over the vast rents generated by administrative allocation. Thus, corruption is a commonplace feature of all these systems. In some respects, corruption can function like a contract that rewards a decision maker for making an efficient decision. However, while corruption allows an allocator to "sell" market access at a shadow price reflected in the market for bribes, there is no legal way to enforce a bribe contract, so property rights remain insecure. Moreover, the recognition by bureaucrats that control of access rights is a potential source of rents and of political power creates additioinal incentives to impose further regulations and increase the sphere of administrative allocation, resulting in a proliferation of regulators, each attempting to hold the producer hostage on a different margin.9 Inefficient property rights do much to explain the perverse information and incentive features of the command system described by Ericson. Ambiguities in the measurement of performance and information asymmetries resulting from long hierarchical chains of authority intensify enforcement costs.10 The Soviet administrative hierarchy presents us with agency relationships writ large. The central authorities were linked in a complex hierarchy with managers throughout the country. A comparison of enterprise performace across regions provided them with one source of information about the level of effort in individual firms. 9 Shleifer, Andrei and Robert Vishny, "Corruption," Quarterly Journal of Economics 10 (November,1994), p. 599-618. For a model of a single principal with authority over multiple agents, see Steven Solnick, "The Brerakdown of Hierarchies in the Soviet Union and China, A Neoinstitutional Perspective," World Politics 48 (January 1996) p. 209-238. 12 In turn, the enterprise manager, an agent, faced multiple principals (such as the Party, the Ministerial authorities, the Treasury, and the local authorities) whose incentives were likely negate each other. These principals were the primary claimants to surpluses generated by the enterprise, and they also were likely to bail out losses, taking on much of the risk the enterprise faced. While, in theory, the enterprise manager had few control rights over resources, in practice, his control over information and his ability to trade off unmeasured dimensions of performance against measured performance indicators could give him substantial benefits of ownership. On the other hand, as central authority deteriorated in the 80s and as nominal price controls created increasing excess demand, Boycko, Shleifer, and Visny report that managers more and more frequently had to bribe allocators to gain access to supplies.11 How does an economy's institutional framework influence the forms of governance of organizations? In a market system, there are few legal constraints on the form that organizations adopt (with the exception of slavery.) Individuals will attempt to choose arrangements that reduce the costs of governance in order to minimize the sum of production and transaction costs. They will trade off agency costs against the resource costs of preventing agency problems. In an administrative bureaucracy, in which bureaucrats have control, but not cash flow rights, to assets, the state is likely to impose many regulatory constraints on the activities of mid-level bureaucrats and agents and to undertake considerable monitoring in order to prevent diversion of resources from centrally-set goals. Since control of information is a valuable asset, which determines the distribution of rents, both bureaucrats and managers may have incentives to choose institutional forms that conceal information about rents--that increase, rather than reduce, information costs. Moreover, if the political elite, as principals, gain security by their ability to monitor decision makers at lower levels in the hierarchy to prevent challenges to their authority, then the state system will not necessarily have incentives to reduce 11 Maxim Boycko, Andrei Shleifer, and Robert Vishny. Privatizing Russia, p 43. 13 monitoring costs either. With collusion, there will also be costs of monitoring the monitors. In the state bureaucracy, both principals and agents have incentives to seek arrangements that give them control of information influencing the division of income. For example, low-cost producers will seek to conceal their true profits in order to retain a larger share, while government principals may seek to hide the true value of centralized resource rents from both enterprises and regional authorities who enjoy some de facto control rights to local resources. Since agents have incentives to divert resources from joint activities to their separate benefit, the authorities will attempt to create strong restrictions to local initiative. So, in sum, state-owned institutions burden citizens with an inefficient partitioning of property rights and deny them governance mechanisms that would allow them to contract around inefficiencies. Creeping Capitalism What are the possible paths to efficient ownership? Attempts to improve performance by establishing an efficient bureaucracy, by corporatizing public enterprises, or by institutionalizing corruption all fail to bring control rights and cash flow rights to property together. Attempts to decentralize control over state production without establishing horizontal market links will disorganize existing administrative means of coordination. Allowing decentralization without establishing a legal framework for private ownership is likely to create de facto opportunities to gain access to rents leading to a drain of resources from the state-controlled sector of the economy to the informal or illegal sector. In Poland's Protracted Transition, Kazimierz Poznanski refers to this process as "creeping capitalism."12 From the very beginning, a total shift of control to the centre proved to be impractical, this because of lack of information...Control over vital information has allowed lower level actors to carve niches of private-choice for themselves. These could be used to make adjustments that actually helped to meet directives set by the centre but also hurt them. In both cases, such independent adjustments 12 Kazimierz Poznanski. Poland's Protracted Transition. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997, p. 276-277. 14 provided lower-level agents with the opportunity for making private gains. With time these informal spheres of free action have gained ground, this process, to a degree, being helped by official reforms. Those communist-era systemic reforms that delegated authority down the decision-pyramid, even if short-lived, were conducive to such expansion. Any reversals in the reform course were helpful because they brought in an element of confusion that served lower-level agents to hide their activities. Personal incentives to work outside of official directives--the central plan--increased further with a decline in the level of coercion. With the practice of subverting the system for personal gain reaching all layers of the system, including the centre, interest in applying coercion has subsided. And when in use, coercion was increasingly applied for extracting personal gains as well. As the government began issuing trading concessions and production permits to members of the political elite, says Poznanski, a system of socalled political capitalism emerged in Poland where political power was used to acquire private wealth and where the political system provided party bosses, state officials, and the police force with protection. The alternative to political capitalism is legal private property. Privatization of State Owned Enterprises Official privatization of state-owned enterprises proceeded nowhere more rapidly than in Russia. The pace of privatization was forced by the rapid unofficial privatization of assets that emerged after the 1990 Russian Law on Enterprises and Entrepreneurial Activity. Small-scale privatization began in 1992, as municipal authorities sold retail shops, cafes, and service facilities in cash auctions and in commercial tenders. Then, mass privatization, extending from December 1992 through July, 1994, saw 15,000 medium and large-scale enterprises privatized through distribution of shares to enterprise employees and through voucher auctions. In the process, firms accounting for two-thirds of the Russian industrial labor force were privatized and over 50 million Russians became shareholders in either privatized enterprises or in the investment funds that held equities. 15 The privatization legislation was a vital first step in codifying property rights in productive assets. State enterprises were classified as federal, territorial, and municipal. Firms first incorporated, submitting a privatization plan, a valuation of assets, and a joint stock charter to the regional office of the property committee. Simultaneously, vouchers were put on sale from October 1, 1992, before privatization auctions began. For a fee of 25 rubles, each Russian received one voucher with a denomination of 10,000 rubles. Vouchers were bearer documents and could be used to buy shares of the enterprise in which the voucher holder worked or to purchase shares at the auction of any other enterprise. They could be exchanged for shares of a voucher investment fund, sold for cash, or used to pay for housing and small scale property. Privatization of a firm began with a closed subscription for employees and managers of the firm.13 In most firms, employees had the right two choose between two options: -Option 1. Workers and managers received 25 percent of the firm's equity in preferred, nonvoting shares. They also had the option to subscribe for another 10 percent of voting equity on favorable terms. In addition, enterprise managers had the option of acquiring up to 5 percent of voting equity at book value, paying with vouchers and cash. Managers and workers could sell their stock without constraint. -Option 2. Workers and managers could buy 51 percent of the voting shares of the enterprise for 1.7 times the book value as of July, 1992, paying with vouchers (for at least 50 percent) and cash. A vote on which option to choose was made at a general meeting, with most enterprises opting for option 2. Workers were allowed to use enterprise balances in social funds to subscribe to an additional 5 percent of the firm's stock. A portion of the equity remaining after closed subscription was then sold by the property committee. The property committee could 13 Ira Lieberman and Suhail Rahuja, "An Overview of Privatization in Russia," in Ira Lieberman, et. al. Russia: Creating Private Enterprises and Efficient Markets. Washington: World Bank, 1995, p. 7-33. 16 choose to sell equity at a voucher auction , at a voucher auction combined with a commercial tender, or a voucher auction combined with an investment tender. Commercial and investment tenders imposed additional investment requirements on prospective purchasers. By July, 1994, mass privatization was complete and many privatized enterprises had begun to restructure, reducing employment, changing their product lines, and divesting enterprise housing and social services. However, privatization alone could not render sprawling former state-owned giants efficient. The division of individual ministries into firms and the boundaries of individual firms were determined by political negotiations between Moscow and the regions rather than by considerations of economic efficiency. All large facilities of the electric power network were incorporated in a single monopoly as were the production and distribution assets of Gasprom. The oil industry was reconstituted into eleven vertically integrated holding companies. On the other hand, municipal telephone companies and local railroad warehouses were privatized separately although the links connecting them remained state owned. Large enterprises and production units were privatized directly from Moscow, while enterprise managers and regional authorities bargained for the right to separate local plants from national conglomerates by setting up holding companies and offering ministry elites blocks of shares in them. To minimize outside control, regional elites used regional banks to purchase and hold regional assets and acquired shares in other regional firms. The resulting pattern of ownership was hybrid with equity divided between enterprises workers and management, regional elites, institutional investors--usually banks and investment companies--other enterprises and holding companies, foreign investors, and state agencies. At the end of the first stage of mass privatization, Joseph Blasi and his co-authors report in Kremlin Capitalism that insiders--managers and workers--owned 65 percent of privatized firms. Management, separately, accounted for 25 percent of ownership share; outsiders-- 17 citizens, firms, investment funds, holding companies, and banks-- accounted for 21 percent and the state held 13 percent.14 In the two years following mass privatization, further shifts in ownership occurred. Top managers together retained about 18 percent of their firms. Workers retained about 40 percent. The share of outsiders-- commercial firms, investment funds, and citizens--rose to 32 percent, on average, but majority outsider ownership was concentrated in a small number of large firms, many of these export-oriented. The numbers are somewhat different if we count ownership structure by number of firms. In this case, 65 percent reported majority ownership by all employees, (of these, workers had majority ownership in 30.5 percent, managers in 5.4 percent.) Outsiders had majority ownership of about 20 percent, the state had majority ownership in 3 percent, and there was no majority owner in 12.8 percent.15 Based on in depth interviews with firms employing 2000 or more workers in most regions of Russia, Blasi, Kroumova, and Kruse argue that de facto control by top managers is considerably larger than these statistics indicate. During 1995, the Russian government attempted to sell 136 large companies in a round of cash sales, but desire to retain domestic control of the shares eventually led to a loans-for-shares agreement between the government and several Russian banks. Banks were allowed to organize auctions themselves and participate in them as both bidders and depostors for bids. In the end, stocks in 12 firms were sold, including LUKoil, Surgutneftegas, and Norilsk Nickel. At the end of the loans-for-shares "auctions," in which only a handful of bidders participated, Russia's banks were openly feuding. The banks that organized the auctions repeatedly disqualified their competitors and won the bidgs; most bids were fairly low; foreigners were completely excluded; some banks and companies used front companies to bid; and banks that were bidders, auction organizers, and bidding competitors helped each other with loan guarantees.16 14 15 16 Joseph Blasi, Maya Kroumova, Douglas Kruse. Kremlin Capitalism; Privatizing the Russian Economy. Ithica, N.Y: Cornell University Press, 1997, p. 193. Ibid., p 56. Ibid., p. 75. 18 In 1996, then, employees of privatized state-owned firms, about 10-15 percent of the population, owned some 58 percent of their firms. Soveral million additional Russians had acquired property in small-scale privatization, and about 12 million Russians had acquired ownership of their housing. Restructuring Existing Firms How will privatization lead existing Russian firms to restructure themselves? The state-owned Russian firm produced in response to government demands, serving a multiplicity of goals other than profits. The manager enjoyed considerable leverage from his superior knowledge of the firm's true capability and he exercised that leverage by diverting resources in directions that served his separate interest. The main skill of a successful General Director was his ability to pry scarce supplies out of the center, not his knowledge of production, marketing, or finance. Successful restructuring of the firm, then, means bringing control and cash flow rights together by privatization of ownership together with the elimination of political capitalism as the primary determinant of enterprise success. In the case of large firms, the goal of bringing control and cash flow rights together implies the creation of institutions for corporate governance. In the absence of institutions supporting corporate governance, effective enterprise ownership would have to be very concentrated. Restructuring implies an end to the social welfare role of the firm with a transfer of social overhead capital to households and to the municipal government. It requires a firm that produces in response to private, rather than government, demand, producing new products that can be competitive in an economy that is open to the world market. These goods will be produced by a substantially smaller labor force, working in a unit that has separated off from a giant Soviet-era production complex like Magnitogorsk. Such restructuring is likely to require the replacement of most Soviet-era General Directors with new managers who have a different mix of skills and face differing incentives, including the long-run incentives of ownership. Only when such 19 substantial restructuring is probable will outside investors be willing to risk capital in the privatized firm. The restructured firm is operating in a changed environment as well. Transitional economies are characterized by rapid change in institutional rules of the game and in the constraints and opportunities that individuals face. The new institutions are intended to reduce uncertainty, to improve information about available resources and their potential uses, to increase incentives to direct resources productively, and, thereby, to give individuals greater control over outcomes that influence their well being. However, goals and outcomes often diverge in the real world. In a transitional economy, members of the society face rapid change in relative prices, in the structure of production, consumption, and investment and changing expectations about the profitability of assets and alternative economic activities. The process of rapid institutional change brings with it high levels of economic uncertainty together with incentives to use resources to acquire ownership rights over valuable assets and to influence the directions of institutional change. 20